The World's Largest Cross-Country Skirace is Cancelled...Forever
News of the Future 08/08/2011 13:42
August 8, 2025 - Due to the global warming and higher temperatures for the last years, the arrangers of the world's largest annual cross-country skirace, Vasaloppet in Sweden, has decided not to continue. They have had problems for several years to make enough snow for the 89 kilometer race and it has been cancelled now and then, the first time already in 1990.
The skirace started in 1922 and the arranger say that they are pleased that they have been able to keep the tradition alive for more than a century. More than 600,000 people have during the years been skiing from Sälen to Mora, the same route that the Swedish king-to-be, Gustav Vasa made in 1521 on his way escaping from Danish soldiers to Norway (although he went the other way, from Mora to Sälen).
Argument: According to Swedish meteorologist Pär Holmgren, the global warming will increase the temperature so it will be impossible to continue with Vasaloppet. The race was cancelled in 1990, and in 2005 the cost for providing the track with enough snow was US$ 1.6 million, or a loss of about US$ 40 per participant. It will not be possible to maintain the contest as it is today, so if there are no revolutionary inventions to provide that much snow, they will either have to quit, or move to a more northern location.
Questions: Apart from the general problem with global warming, will it affect any other similar events? When a city is chosen to host the Winter Olympics, will the availability of snow be an issue that narrows down the candidates? Will the demand for snow increase in the next 20 years due to all established events that will be affected?
370 Million People Worldwide Suffer from Diabetes
News of the Future 01/08/2011 13:39
August 1, 2030 - New statistics suggest that more than 370 million people worldwide today suffer from diabetes. The numbers have doubled over the last 30 years. Much of this increase has taken place in developed countries, due to ageing, obesity, unhealthy diets, population growth and sedentary lifestyles.
The direct costs for treating diabetes will only for the US this year be about US$ 506 billion. Although the number of people dying directly from diabetes is approximately 1.5 million worldwide, the number of deaths every year attributable to complications of diabetes is more than 8 million.
Even though improvements have been made in the work for finding a permanent cure for diabetes, the best cure for type-2 diabetes (which results from the body's inability to respond properly to the action of insulin produced by the pancreas) which accounts for about 90% of the cases, is still to exercise and keep a healthy diet. A 30 minute walk each day reduces the incidence of diabetes.
Argument: WHO estimates that 370 million people worldwide will suffer from diabetes in 2030, compared to 177 million in 2000. The figure US$ 506 billion in direct costs for the US to treat diabetes is based on today's cost, the estimated inflation and increase in patients to treat. No eventual cure for diabetes until 2030 is considered. Today the most permanent method of treating diabetes is a pancreas transplant which gives the patient a chance to become independent of insulin injections.
Questions: The most promising cure for diabetes is based on stem cell research. How much of the estimated cost for diabetes in 2030 would be worth investing today to get closer to a cure and what would be the return on that investment? Since physical activity reduces the incidence of diabetes, how much is worth investing in people being more active, already from a young age and to keep them active on a regular basis?
370 Million People Worldwide Suffer from Diabetes
News of the Future 01/08/2011 13:39
August 1, 2030 - New statistics suggest that more than 370 million people worldwide today suffer from diabetes. The numbers have doubled over the last 30 years. Much of this increase has taken place in developed countries, due to ageing, obesity, unhealthy diets, population growth and sedentary lifestyles.
The direct costs for treating diabetes will only for the US this year be about US$ 506 billion. Although the number of people dying directly from diabetes is approximately 1.5 million worldwide, the number of deaths every year attributable to complications of diabetes is more than 8 million.
Even though improvements have been made in the work for finding a permanent cure for diabetes, the best cure for type-2 diabetes (which results from the body's inability to respond properly to the action of insulin produced by the pancreas) which accounts for about 90% of the cases, is still to exercise and keep a healthy diet. A 30 minute walk each day reduces the incidence of diabetes.
Argument: WHO estimates that 370 million people worldwide will suffer from diabetes in 2030, compared to 177 million in 2000. The figure US$ 506 billion in direct costs for the US to treat diabetes is based on today's cost, the estimated inflation and increase in patients to treat. No eventual cure for diabetes until 2030 is considered. Today the most permanent method of treating diabetes is a pancreas transplant which gives the patient a chance to become independent of insulin injections.
Questions: The most promising cure for diabetes is based on stem cell research. How much of the estimated cost for diabetes in 2030 would be worth investing today to get closer to a cure and what would be the return on that investment? Since physical activity reduces the incidence of diabetes, how much is worth investing in people being more active, already from a young age and to keep them active on a regular basis?
India is Now More Populous than China
News of the Future 01/07/2011 13:37
July 1, 2030 - It is now officially declared that India has passed China, excluding Hong Kong, as the most populous nation in the world according to the UN. The two nations "met" at 1.448 billion people each. The population of India is estimated to increase to 1.593 billion by year 2050.
The reason for the switch on the population throne is the lower fertility for China that will continue to decrease the number of Chinese to 1.390 billion for the next 20 years.
Argument: According to the United Nations, India will pass China as the most populous nation in the world by 2030.
Questions: If India has not got a permanent place in the United Nations Security Council by the time, will they demand it when they become the most populous nation in the world? Will this cause a change in foreign investment in low-cost labor to India from China?
India is Now More Populous than China
News of the Future 01/07/2011 13:37
July 1, 2030 - It is now officially declared that India has passed China, excluding Hong Kong, as the most populous nation in the world according to the UN. The two nations "met" at 1.448 billion people each. The population of India is estimated to increase to 1.593 billion by year 2050.
The reason for the switch on the population throne is the lower fertility for China that will continue to decrease the number of Chinese to 1.390 billion for the next 20 years.
Argument: According to the United Nations, India will pass China as the most populous nation in the world by 2030.
Questions: If India has not got a permanent place in the United Nations Security Council by the time, will they demand it when they become the most populous nation in the world? Will this cause a change in foreign investment in low-cost labor to India from China?
180 Million Deaths Worldwide from HIV
News of the Future 26/06/2011 13:34
June 26, 2030 - The total number of deaths from HIV/AIDS worldwide is now said to have passed 180 million people, since it was recognized 50 years ago. The most infected are to find in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia.
AIDS is the worst pandemic ever to have hit mankind, and have caused more deaths than the Spanish Flu in 1918-1919 and the Black Death in the 14th century combined. Well, you can add the deaths caused directly by the two world wars during the 20th century too, and AIDS will still outnumber them all. More than half of the deaths from HIV originates from the sub-Saharan Africa, where there now are 14% fewer inhabitants than it would have been without the occurrence of AIDS.
Even though the deaths are tragic, living with the disease put a lot of strain on the average household. The affected families are losing income, as well as get higher expenditure for medical treatment, which impoverish households even further in an already poor part of the world. This forces many families to reduce the consumption of food, which results in malnutrition for all members of the family.
The efforts to raise awareness among the most affected populations have been quite successful during the last decades, as well as lowering the cost for the medicine needed to treat the disease, but there is still no definite cure in sight.
Argument: The numbers of deaths worldwide from AIDS published by the United Nations in the report The Impact of AIDS for year 2025 have been revised for the year 2030.
Questions: What consequences will this loss of human lives have for the strive towards stability in the poor parts of the world?
180 Million Deaths Worldwide from HIV
News of the Future 26/06/2011 13:34
June 26, 2030 - The total number of deaths from HIV/AIDS worldwide is now said to have passed 180 million people, since it was recognized 50 years ago. The most infected are to find in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia.
AIDS is the worst pandemic ever to have hit mankind, and have caused more deaths than the Spanish Flu in 1918-1919 and the Black Death in the 14th century combined. Well, you can add the deaths caused directly by the two world wars during the 20th century too, and AIDS will still outnumber them all. More than half of the deaths from HIV originates from the sub-Saharan Africa, where there now are 14% fewer inhabitants than it would have been without the occurrence of AIDS.
Even though the deaths are tragic, living with the disease put a lot of strain on the average household. The affected families are losing income, as well as get higher expenditure for medical treatment, which impoverish households even further in an already poor part of the world. This forces many families to reduce the consumption of food, which results in malnutrition for all members of the family.
The efforts to raise awareness among the most affected populations have been quite successful during the last decades, as well as lowering the cost for the medicine needed to treat the disease, but there is still no definite cure in sight.
Argument: The numbers of deaths worldwide from AIDS published by the United Nations in the report The Impact of AIDS for year 2025 have been revised for the year 2030.
Questions: What consequences will this loss of human lives have for the strive towards stability in the poor parts of the world?
Deadly Skin Cancer More Common in the UK
News of the Future 20/06/2011 13:32
June 20, 2035 - This year more than 21,000 people in the UK will be diagnosed with malignant melanoma - the deadliest form of skin cancer - which is three times as many as 30 years ago. The reason for the increase is the global warming and that more people in the UK travel abroad to sunnier locations.
Most skin cancers are easily treatable and unlikely to spread, and are called non-melanoma. Malignant melanoma is the most serious type of the disease and may be fatal. It is more common in women than men and research says that sunburns in childhood can double the risk of melanoma in later life.
Some people are born with a greater risk of skin cancer than others. These people tend to burn easily, have fair skin and/or freckles, have red or fair hair and/or pale eyes, have a large number of moles (50+), or have skin cancer in the family (especially melanoma). If one or more of these descriptions apply to you, you should take extra care to protect yourself from the sun.
Argument: According to Cancer Research UK the number of people diagnosed with malignant melanoma each year will triple until 2035.
Questions: In what other ways will the global warming affect peoples health in the future?
Deadly Skin Cancer More Common in the UK
News of the Future 20/06/2011 13:32
June 20, 2035 - This year more than 21,000 people in the UK will be diagnosed with malignant melanoma - the deadliest form of skin cancer - which is three times as many as 30 years ago. The reason for the increase is the global warming and that more people in the UK travel abroad to sunnier locations.
Most skin cancers are easily treatable and unlikely to spread, and are called non-melanoma. Malignant melanoma is the most serious type of the disease and may be fatal. It is more common in women than men and research says that sunburns in childhood can double the risk of melanoma in later life.
Some people are born with a greater risk of skin cancer than others. These people tend to burn easily, have fair skin and/or freckles, have red or fair hair and/or pale eyes, have a large number of moles (50+), or have skin cancer in the family (especially melanoma). If one or more of these descriptions apply to you, you should take extra care to protect yourself from the sun.
Argument: According to Cancer Research UK the number of people diagnosed with malignant melanoma each year will triple until 2035.
Questions: In what other ways will the global warming affect peoples health in the future?
In-atmosphere Travel is Increasing Safely
News of the Future 06/06/2011 13:26
June 6, 2040 - For the first time ever, in-atmosphere passenger kilometers have passed 8,000 billion per year worldwide, according to the latest statistics, which is an increase by three times during the last 30 years. The introduction of the super-jumbo (600-seat airliners) combined with the low price level for flight traveling has kept the numbers steadily increasing.
The number of fatal accidents with jet planes in commercial airlines has continued to decrease down to 0.42 per 1 million flights, which is almost down 60% compared to 30 years ago.
These figures do not include the out-of-atmosphere traveling that continues to increase every year, and is mainly counted by number of passengers that are going by space shuttles out of the atmosphere, than by kilometres.
Argument: Since the world's population in the developed countries will not increase until 2040 according to United Nations, the annual growth rate in passenger kilometers will decrease compared to the last 40 years. Out of the atmosphere travel will be available around 2012 (apart from the few "tourists" that have been away so far).
Questions: 3.5% of the human-induced global warming originated from aviation according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). What fuel will be the common one in 2040, oil, alcohol, hydrogen, biodiesel, or a combination?
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