Re-Hydro to Dominate in the Future
News of the Future 12/04/2008 12:34
April 12, 2040 - Although introduced in the market only five years ago, 10% of all hydrogen fuel now sold in the US is of the enviromental friendly Re-Hydro label, produced through electrolysis based on a source of 100% renewable energy.
Several producers have switched to producing Re-Hydro, mainly because of tax incentives, which also keep the price of Re-Hydro on the same level as regular hydrogen.
10% in five years might not seem much, especially compared to the move to lead free gasoline 50 years ago, which only took a decade. When producing hydrogen vast amount of energy is needed, and the main issue of producing Re-Hydro has been the lack of energy from renewable sources and that it is not generated close to the production plants.
Most analysts believe though that Re-Hydro will be the dominating fuel in the future, and the incentives to switch has already led to great improvements in producing energy even more efficient from solar, wind and water.
Since hydrogen-hybrids together with fuel-cells eventually will force gasoline vehicles off the road, followed by long-term and patient support of Re-Hydro from the government, it could be the opportunity that environmentalists in several decades have hoped for to put the last nail in the coffin of fossil fuels.
But the progress is slow, so far only 4.1 million cars running on hydrogen have been sold in the US, which is about 1.5% of the total fleet. Iceland is the leader in the world, both when it comes to hydrogen and using re-hydro, with 100% of the car fleet now on re-hydro.
Argument: The development of hydrogen-fueled cars is based on several different sources, with the optimistic scenarios for a fast introduction on the market, to the book The Hype about Hydrogen by Joseph J. Romm. With the development in renewable sources of energy it will be possible for environmental labeled hydrogen.
Questions: Will there be other fuel alternatives to hydrogen when gasoline will be replaced? Will Re-Hydro put an end to fossil fuels?
Mankind Ready for Mars
News of the Future 05/04/2008 12:32
April 5, 2030 - The international collaboration for the first manned mission to Mars presented today the final plans for the trip next year. Take off will be January 24 and after about five months in space they will land on Martian soil on June 28. The countdown for one of the greatest adventures ever has started.
There were 16 astronauts in the team when preparations for the trip commenced four years ago. Last year seven of them left and the five that was announced to make the final crew are still accompanied by four people in the backup team.
A significant adjustment that they are preparing for is that the day on Mars is 40 minutes longer than on Earth. It might not sound that much, but after only nine days your time is off six hours compared to Earth time. The long trip there without any knowledge of day or night also complicates the perception of time, which is important for the crew to stay alert.
When they land they will have supply, equipment and their return vehicle waiting for them, which was sent there during the previous launching window about 18 months ago. That will hopefully keep them occupied during the 600 days that they have to stay on Mars before they can return home to earth, due to the position of the planets.
Even though the mission is one of the greatest mankind has taken on, it is not in comparison with the brave adventurers exploring the earth during the past milleniums not knowing what to find. This time we at least have nice brochures with full color photos of where we are heading. The biggest challenge is if the human body and mind are adjustable for interplanetary missions.
The main issue to solve for a manned mission to Mars has been the radiation that the vehicle and crew will be exposed to during the trip. The radiation that affect the astronauts the most will be the solar energetic particles from the activity of the sun, and the galactic cosmic rays from outside our solar system. The fact that the 11-year solar activity cycle reaches a peak during the trip, increasing the occurrence of solar energetic particles, makes the task even more difficult.
However, the successful development of shield material with a high rate of absorbing particle radiation has made it possible. Even though a lot of extensive testing has been made it is hard to know exactly how the human body will react to the exposure of radiation during such a long time in zero gravity, and how much the immune system will be reduced. The crew will be exposed to risks that no other human beings have before.
It was a great achievement by the human race to put the manned Apollo 11 on the moon more than 60 years ago, considered the technological limitations of that time, especially compared to today. But since the human itself is the weak link this time, the words from Neil Armstrong might need to be re-phrased when we see the first footprint on the surface of Mars next year: "Quite a big step for mankind, but a giant leap for the human being."
Argument: Several organizations plan to put the first man on Mars by year 2030 and most likely it will done in a collaboration between those due to giant costs. According to Nasa the most likely way to go will be a "Long-Stay Mission (fast transit)" with 4-6 months to get there and a 600 days stay before returning.
Questions: What events will take place on earth in relation to the mission and when the human race will be absorbed by the climax, the landing on Martian soil? What possibilities will occur due to the exploration of Mars this century? What will be the next step in interplanetary exploration?
Net Cereal Deficits Increase in Developing Countries
News of the Future 22/03/2008 22:55
March 22, 2030 - The net cereal deficits in the developing countries have increased to 13% of the consumption, or 232 million tonnes. 30 years ago the deficits were 103 million tonnes, or only 9% of consumption.
Yield growth is the dominant factor underlying increases in crop production and accounts in developing countries for about 70 percent of the growth during the last 30 year, but cereal production does not keep pace with demand.
Argument: According to Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations the net cereal deficits in the developing countries have increased to 13% of the consumption by year 2030.
Do the Anti-Aging Drugs Work?
News of the Future 20/03/2008 17:12
March 20, 2035 - There was a lot of buzz around the life extension drugs that hit the market a decade ago. They didn’t promise you to live forever but they gave you a chance to maybe extend your life with an extra five to ten years. But do they work?
The life expectancy rate at birth is currently about 82 years in the US, up from 78 years in 2005. But even though the life expectancy rate at birth has increased significantly, the life expectancy for seniors hasn’t improved that much. Basically, you have a greater chance to become senior, but you will not have a much longer lifespan, and this is where the anti-aging drugs intend to kick in.
Life extension came to public knowledge in the beginning of the 1980s and has mainly been based on a couple of different preventive methods. Calorie restriction combined with an in general healthy diet, and nutritional supplementation with for instance antioxidant supplements like vitamins.
Then there are a lot of other methods related to extending life, like replacing organs and repairing damaged tissues, and for instance the development in regeneration that makes parts of your body grow back. These methods though are still mainly available to people in general health care. A good bet to live longer is still to keep up a healthy lifestyle with less stress, plenty of physical exercise and proper diet.
I sat down with Stella Eggen from Sedalia, Missouri on her 103rd birthday last week. Stella is a virile woman with lively eyes and a crisp mind. She had to give up playing tennis at the age of 91 because her eight year younger tennis partner couldn’t keep up the pace.
Stella is born on the same day in 1932 as George Eastman, the founder of the Eastman Kodak Company and inventor of roll film, committed suicide at the age of 77. George ended his life to avoid a battle with spinal stenosis, a medical condition that occurs with aging (he left a suicide note that read: “My work is done. Why wait?”).
I asked Stella if she had heard about the life extension drugs. “Of course I’ve heard of them, people keep reminding me all the time, even though they know that the drugs will not have any effect on me. I am too old”, she says with a smile.
But if they had been available earlier would she have been interesting in taken them? “I don’t know. I’m pretty satisfied with the life I’ve had but of course I wouldn’t mind to stay around for another decade. But taking drugs regularly for half my life to make that extra decade, I probably could have spent my money on better things.”
“My grandson got one of these space trips for Christmas. He says he has become an entirely new person after he got out in space for thirty minutes, looking down on Earth. I think that prolonged his life more than any drugs could. If I only could pass the physics test I would have liked to join.”
Apart from the space trip, if she could live her life all over what would she then do differently? “You can always regret things that you didn’t do more, but one shouldn’t dig to deep into that. But I wish I had made more true friends, and taken more chances, not worrying about a lot of stupid things, and eaten more ice cream, I love ice cream.” Then she slowly leans towards me “...and had more sex of course”, she whispers giggling.
So, do the anti-aging drugs work? Well, it is way too early to tell. The sales so far clearly show that people at least are willing to give it a try, and with the annual cost of US$1,300 per person, the companies behind the dream are making good money.
It will take about 30 to 40 more years for the study groups to reach the age where the researchers can give some sort of definite answer about the final effect, if they ever will. During this time new drugs will hit the market and have the same time span to give a proper result. So if you should take the drugs or not, and which drug you should take, will during your lifetime (whether you succeed to extend it or not) be up to your own belief.
Until then you can enjoy your life more if you go on a space trip, don’t stress, stop worrying, take more chances and have more, yes you know what I mean...ice cream, of course.
Argument: The numbers of the current US life expectancy rate at birth comes from the National Center for Health Statistics. The future of anti-aging drugs are based on several sources, for instance the article “Resveratrol may slow aging” from Fortune Magazine. Information about George Eastman can be found at Wikipedia.
Questions: What other developments in the near future can prolong human life? Should there be any limits for what actions that could be taken to extend human life?
Voyager Sisters - R.I.S. (Rest in Space)
News of the Future 13/03/2008 10:56
March 13, 2025 - The latest efforts in getting in contact with the Voyager probes have not been successful and today it was officially announced that we have lost the contact with them forever. The last signal from Voyager 1 was received in November 2020 and from Voyager 2 in March 2020.
Voyager 1 was launched into space in September 1977 with the primary target to explore Jupiter and Saturn and their moons and rings. It is today the farthest human-made object from Earth, with a distance of about 22.6 billion kilometers from our Sun, or 150 times farther away from the Sun than Earth. Voyager 1 was also the first human object to enter interstellar space about 10 years ago.
The reason for the lost contact is lack of power from the three radioisotope thermoelectric generators, that is needed for the Voyagers to set the antenna towards Earth to be able to uphold contact.
When launching the Voyagers greetings were included from us earthlings to any form of life that would get in contact with the spacecraft. It was samples of natural sounds, pictures and spoken greetings in fifty-five languages.
There is no question that there are other life in the Universe, but if they find a Voyager the chance that our greetings would mean anything to them would be minimal. Considered that our solar system is 4.6 billion years, other life forms might be 10 million years behind us in development and will not have any use for the package inside and will probably just try to eat it.
If they are 10 million years ahead of us they have most likely mapped up our planet better than we have, with better pictures and even sounds from Earth, than we have included in the probes.
There are no new unmanned spacecrafts planned for further exploration of our solar system at the moment, the focus is on setting up space habitat, like Starbright on the Moon and the first manned Mars mission expected in year 2031.
Even though Voyager 1 has been on the road for some time, it will take another 40,000 years before it encounters another star and will then do it by passing by at a distance of “only” 1.6 light years.
Argument: NASA estimates that the electric power needed for the Voyager probes to operate will last until year 2020.
Auto Scrap Piling Up in Developing Countries
News of the Future 08/03/2008 12:48
March 8, 2020 - Even though the major carmakers are very conscious about recycling their vehicles already during the production, the auto scrap in the developing countries are now 393 million tons. This number has tripled during the last 20 years.
The introduction of End-of-Life Vehicle programs 15 years ago, where the producer of the car also is responsible for the recycling, is the reason that the recycling rate is now about 95% in the developed countries. Unfortunately, the developing countries are still to follow. The main issue for them is how to handle non-ferrous metals, plastics and rubber that are more difficult to recycle than steel and iron.
Although the high oil price, the number of vehicles worldwide has increased with more than 80% over the last 20 years to more than 1.4 billion, projected to pass 2 billion in year 2030.
Argument: According to the report Managing the Future - World Vehicle Forecasts and Strategies to 2020 the developing countries are facing an environmental challenge in taking care of their auto scrap by year 2020. The projected numbers of vehicles in 2020 and 2030 are from Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, Worldwide: 1960-2030.
Questions: How long will it be until End-of-Life Vehicle programs have an effect in the developing countries? What other developments are to be expected in recycling cars?
13.2 Million Americans Have Alzheimer
News of the Future 28/02/2008 12:45
February 28, 2050 - An estimated 13.2 million Americans currently have Alzheimer's disease. The number of people with Alzheimer has tripled during the last 45 years although the general US population has only increased during the same period by 45%. The reason is mainly due to the aging population; about 60% of those who have Alzheimer are 85 years or older.
Alzheimer's disease is the most common form of dementia among older people. It involves the parts of the brain that control thought, memory, and language. Alzheimer is an irreversible disorder, and even though progress has been made in detecting the disease at an earlier stage, for earlier diagnosis and prevention efforts, there is still no cure.
So how can you tell if someone you know have begun to develop Alzheimer? Usually it starts with slight forgetfulness. Then the person asks the same question over and over again and repeats the same story, word for word. The person can also forget recent events and how to do simple tasks.
Argument: According to National Institutes of Health in the US, 13.2 million Americans will have Alzheimer's disease by 2050, while the US population by then will be 419 million (US Census Bureau).
Questions: Since a lot of stress is put on families where a person has been diagnosed with Alzheimer, what will this increase in people with Alzheimer do to the society in general, when a higher percentage of the population has to become caregivers?
What if an AIDS Vaccine was Approved this Evening...
News of the Future 23/02/2008 21:53
February 23, 2020 - As you probably know there is still no HIV/AIDS vaccine approved now in 2020, but what would happen if one was approved already later this evening? Will it stop the spreading of the virus and eliminate the disease? Well, not right away... First of all, if you later today hear that a vaccine has been approved, you definitely would have heard that it was on the way for approval a long time ago. With the two current vaccines in final trials (Phase III trials) only halfway so far, there is another 4-5 years before that could occur.
Since it takes several years to set up production facilities for a new vaccine, the companies and institutions behind the two vaccines in final trials are already building them to stand ready if granted an approval. Despite huge investments in facilities that might not be used for the purpose, they will in no way be sufficient for the demand of the vaccine. Therefore, new facilities have to be built, which will take 5-6 years from the approval, to be able to produce the vaccine needed.
It’s today globally recognized that the developer of an AIDS vaccine give up the exclusive rights for the most affected areas such as sub-Saharan Africa, developing Asia and Latin America, compensated by a small license fee from generic drug producers. This is also the case with the developers of the two vaccines in the final trials. The developers will however have the common patent rights for the rest of the world, where they will compete according to current market conditions.
For enough vaccine to be produced and distributed to stop the spread of the virus as quickly as possible, hopes are set to the global guarantee fund for an approved AIDS vaccine. The purpose of the fund is to secure funding for additional production facilities, the production and distribution of the vaccine to a first priority population of about 800 million people, clear the rights thereof and other costs related, once a vaccine has been approved.
The fund is supported by donors, foundations and governments, but has so far only been granted total guarantees of US$16 billion, of the US$28 billion requested. Even though the governmental guarantors of the fund have agreed not to take the guaranteed amounts from their regular aid support, skeptics claim that that anyway will be the case once the vaccine is approved, or they will not supply the guaranteed amounts as promised.
If the governments use their regular aid support to finance the fund, it can cause severe implications for people in critical need in other areas. It can also directly or indirectly harm organizations on which the distribution of an AIDS vaccine is depending.
The governmental guarantors from less affected areas, will also have to deal with providing the vaccine to their own citizens to a much higher price per immunization course. This will however be done through subsidies where the patient bare some of the cost.
Considered that the funding reach the target in time for the vaccine approval, will we come to a quick stop of the virus? No vaccine is 100% effective, and the first generation AIDS vaccine might only reach a 50% efficiency. So even with full production and distribution, we need further research and development for a more efficient vaccine, which will take years before it can be approved.
With a 50% effective vaccine given to 30% of the population could cut the number of new HIV infections in the developing world by more than half in 15 years. This will mean that if a vaccine was approved later this evening, more than 1 million people will still be infected around the year 2040 (remember new facilities were needed for extensive production and takes some years to build). So with this in mind, HIV/AIDS will still be around for probably half a century after they announce an approval of a vaccine.
Since we have been aware of HIV/AIDS now for about 40 years (it was widely recognized in 1981) what else could we have done to better prepare ourselves for a vaccine approval? There are now programs in schools in the US and other parts of the developed world, where the students are in regular contact during three years with schools in the worst affected areas. The sponsored program also include a trip for the students to meet with their far away friends.
This has given the students a better knowledge of the occurrence of HIV/AIDS and how it affect people in their own age in their daily lives. Surveys among the students also shows that they have developed a better understanding of people from other cultures, a much more generous approach to people in need, and even gained better self confidence.
If these programs had been around in 1995 at the peak of US casualties from AIDS, several decision makers now in their 40s, would have been engaged students. This would have left them with AIDS consciousness in their spines, with a better understanding, will to support research etc. and also passing it on to their peers. This release of brain resources in the developed world could have made a big difference in the strive for the AIDS vaccine.
The best way to stop the spreading of the virus is still information of how to protect yourself from getting it or pass it along, and to help the infected, highly active anti-retroviral therapy (HAART) help you stay alive. Although the vast efforts over the last decades, estimates suggests that until year 2030, a total of 180 million people worldwide will have died from AIDS, since it was recognized.
Don’t expect to hear the news later this evening that an AIDS vaccine has been approved. But if you do, it doesn’t mean that the struggle is over, it is only entering a new phase.
Argument: Estimations for the production of an initial AIDS vaccine is based on Breaking the bottleneck by Sheri Fink, MD, PhD. The effect of a first generation AIDS vaccine is based on Estimating the Impact of an AIDS Vaccine in Developing Countries from the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative. By February 2007, no AIDS vaccine is in Phase III trials which means that there will be no vaccine available in the market until earliest about year 2015.
Questions: In what other ways can we prepare for the day when an AIDS vaccine might be available, for it to reach people as quickly as possible? Can we release resources from the developed world in any other ways to help the most affected areas?
China has Passed the US as the World's Largest Economy
News of the Future 21/02/2008 11:29
February 21, 2040 - Analysts report that China passed the US as the largest economy in the world last year. With a nominal GDP* of US$29,300 billion for year 2039, China is ahead of US with more than US$500 billion. China has tenfold their GDP over the last 35 years.
The US was the world’s largest economy for about a century, since the British Empire suffered severely in the Second World War. China can now look for a reign on the throne for about 30-40 years before the currently fastest growing major economy, India, is likely to surpass them. India became the world’s third largest economy in year 2034 with the help of their growing population and will challenge the size of the US economy in a decade.
Even though China has passed the US in total, the US is still by far the nation with the biggest GDP per capita with US$73,830, followed by Japan, United Kingdom and France, among the largest economies in the world. China, as the second most populous country in the world, has a GDP per capita of US$20,610, more than twice as much as India on US$8,180.
Argument: The numbers are based on the report Brazil, Russia, India and China - A Road in 2050 by Goldman Sachs, but have been revised according to the latest GDP data in the World Economic Outlook (September 2006 edition) from the International Monetary Fund.
Questions: What impact will China have on the rest of the world with a tenfold increase of the Chinese economy? How will the Chinese culture affect other parts of the world, compared to for instance the American culture today?
*Nominal Gross Domestic Product measures the value of all goods and services produced in a country expressed in current prices.
Hot Gadget: Speed Up Your Home With 4 THz
News of the Future 14/02/2008 11:26
February 14, 2025 - Today is the release of the first home computer with the new 4 THz microprocessor, currently the highest performing processor available. Several analysts have doubted of the need of the 4THz processor for the home market, but the pre-sale for the last couple of weeks look positive according to the manufacturer.
The computer has the 100TB memory drive that became standard about 5 years ago, basically because the lack of interest in more storage for home computers. It's nice that they have included 1,000 movies in the package but as you can guess they are not the latest releases.
It has 512 GB RAM memory, the size of the box is 10.3" x 7.9" x 1.2" (WxDxH) and it is of course compatible with all the wireless screens that you have at home. The introduction price is set to US$ 399.
Argument: According to Moore's Law the number of transistors that could be placed on a computer chip would double every 18 months which has been the case since the 1970s. Gordon Moore has though revised his law since then which could give us a microprocessor of 4 THz by 2025.
Questions: Will there be need for more than 100 TB storage memory for the home market? What else can drive the development of home computers than moving images, as in movies and games?
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