India is Now More Populous than China
News of the Future 01/07/2008 13:37
July 1, 2030 - It is now officially declared that India has passed China, excluding Hong Kong, as the most populous nation in the world according to the UN. The two nations "met" at 1.448 billion people each. The population of India is estimated to increase to 1.593 billion by year 2050.
The reason for the switch on the population throne is the lower fertility for China that will continue to decrease the number of Chinese to 1.390 billion for the next 20 years.
Argument: According to the United Nations, India will pass China as the most populous nation in the world by 2030.
Questions: If India has not got a permanent place in the United Nations Security Council by the time, will they demand it when they become the most populous nation in the world? Will this cause a change in foreign investment in low-cost labor to India from China?
180 Million Deaths Worldwide from HIV
News of the Future 26/06/2008 13:34
June 26, 2030 - The total number of deaths from HIV/AIDS worldwide is now said to have passed 180 million people, since it was recognized 50 years ago. The most infected are to find in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia.
AIDS is the worst pandemic ever to have hit mankind, and have caused more deaths than the Spanish Flu in 1918-1919 and the Black Death in the 14th century combined. Well, you can add the deaths caused directly by the two world wars during the 20th century too, and AIDS will still outnumber them all. More than half of the deaths from HIV originates from the sub-Saharan Africa, where there now are 14% fewer inhabitants than it would have been without the occurrence of AIDS.
Even though the deaths are tragic, living with the disease put a lot of strain on the average household. The affected families are losing income, as well as get higher expenditure for medical treatment, which impoverish households even further in an already poor part of the world. This forces many families to reduce the consumption of food, which results in malnutrition for all members of the family.
The efforts to raise awareness among the most affected populations have been quite successful during the last decades, as well as lowering the cost for the medicine needed to treat the disease, but there is still no definite cure in sight.
Argument: The numbers of deaths worldwide from AIDS published by the United Nations in the report The Impact of AIDS for year 2025 have been revised for the year 2030.
Questions: What consequences will this loss of human lives have for the strive towards stability in the poor parts of the world?
Deadly Skin Cancer More Common in the UK
News of the Future 20/06/2008 13:32
June 20, 2035 - This year more than 21,000 people in the UK will be diagnosed with malignant melanoma - the deadliest form of skin cancer - which is three times as many as 30 years ago. The reason for the increase is the global warming and that more people in the UK travel abroad to sunnier locations.
Most skin cancers are easily treatable and unlikely to spread, and are called non-melanoma. Malignant melanoma is the most serious type of the disease and may be fatal. It is more common in women than men and research says that sunburns in childhood can double the risk of melanoma in later life.
Some people are born with a greater risk of skin cancer than others. These people tend to burn easily, have fair skin and/or freckles, have red or fair hair and/or pale eyes, have a large number of moles (50+), or have skin cancer in the family (especially melanoma). If one or more of these descriptions apply to you, you should take extra care to protect yourself from the sun.
Argument: According to Cancer Research UK the number of people diagnosed with malignant melanoma each year will triple until 2035.
Questions: In what other ways will the global warming affect peoples health in the future?
In-atmosphere Travel is Increasing Safely
News of the Future 06/06/2008 13:26
June 6, 2040 - For the first time ever, in-atmosphere passenger kilometers have passed 8,000 billion per year worldwide, according to the latest statistics, which is an increase by three times during the last 30 years. The introduction of the super-jumbo (600-seat airliners) combined with the low price level for flight traveling has kept the numbers steadily increasing.
The number of fatal accidents with jet planes in commercial airlines has continued to decrease down to 0.42 per 1 million flights, which is almost down 60% compared to 30 years ago.
These figures do not include the out-of-atmosphere traveling that continues to increase every year, and is mainly counted by number of passengers that are going by space shuttles out of the atmosphere, than by kilometres.
Argument: Since the world's population in the developed countries will not increase until 2040 according to United Nations, the annual growth rate in passenger kilometers will decrease compared to the last 40 years. Out of the atmosphere travel will be available around 2010 (apart from the few "tourists" that have been away so far).
Questions: 3.5% of the human-induced global warming originated from aviation according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). What fuel will be the common one in 2040, oil, alcohol, hydrogen, biodiesel, or a combination?
Stroke Still Strikes Hard
News of the Future 30/05/2008 13:23
May 30, 2025 - It is estimated that there will be 1,136,000 new cases of stroke this year in the US, up 2% from last year. The cases of stroke have increased by 67% during the last 25 years, which is in line with the growing and aging population.
Even though there has been some progress in the research of the aging of blood vessels and brain, the key risk factor of stroke, new cases have not been decreasing in relation to the population. However, improved treatments have decreased the mortality of stroke during the last decade.
Stroke is a sudden interruption in the blood supply of the brain. The most common form is ischemic stroke (about 90% of all cases) which is an abrupt blockage of arteries leading to the brain. The rest of the stroke cases are mainly when a blood vessel in the brain bursts, which is a more fatal form called hemorrhagic stroke. Stroke is the third leading cause of death in the US and the leading cause of major adult disability.
Stroke occurs more often in women than men, and about 60% of all stroke deaths occur in women. African-Americans have nearly double the overall rate of stroke compared with white Americans, and more than 70% of all stroke cases occur in people older than 65 years. You are more at risk to get a stroke if you are smoking, eat unhealthy food, are overweight or have high blood pressure (hypertension is a factor in almost 70% of all stroke cases).
Since it is crucial to get help as soon as possible to survive a stroke and for a better outcome, it is important to recognize the warning signs of a person who gets a stroke. The signs depend of what part and side of the brain that is affected, and how sever the injury is. The most common sign is sudden weakness on one side of the body, face, arm or leg. Others are sudden numbness, confusion, trouble speaking or understanding speech, trouble walking, dizziness, loss of balance or coordination, or severe headache with no known cause.
Argument: According to the lecture Stroke Therapy in the Year 2025 1,136,000 stroke cases will occur in the US by 2025.
Questions: Lots of people, and their families as caregivers, are affected when a stroke occurs. Since it is crucial that a person with stroke gets to hospital and very few people are aware of the warning signs, shouldn't these signs be taught in elementary education? What new discoveries will open up for better brain recovery after a stroke?
A Quarter of the US Population Hispanic
News of the Future 23/05/2008 13:18
May 23, 2050 - The US population has now grown to 419 million people, of which almost a quarter, 24.4%, are of Hispanic origin. Their share of the population has almost doubled since 50 years ago and there are now more than 102 million Hispanic living in the US.
The US population is still increasing in contrast to most major European countries (apart from the United Kingdom) where the population has declined during the last decades. If you are out for a partner, you have still more to choose from if you are looking for a woman, since they out-number the men by almost 7 million.
Argument: The numbers are based on the U.S. Interim Projections by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Questions: How will the increasing share of people with Hispanic origin of the US population affect the society in general? How will the fact that the US population increases while the European population is declining affect the balance between the two regions?
More People in the US Suffer from Atrial Fibrillation
News of the Future 16/05/2008 12:56
May 16, 2050 - More than 5.6 million people in the US will be diagnosed with atrial fibrillation this year, compared to 2.3 million 50 years ago.
The main reason for the increase is the aging population, and half of the people suffering from atrial fibrillation are 80 years or older.
Atrial fibrillation occurs when the blood is not pumped out properly of the heart's two upper chambers (atria), which eventually can make it clot. About 15 percent of strokes occur when such clot from the atria becomes lodged in the artery in the brain.
Argument: According to the study Prevalence of diagnosed atrial fibrillation in adults: national implications for rhythm management and stroke prevention: the AnTicoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation, between 5.0 and 6.3 million people in the US are projected to be diagnosed with atrial fibrillation.
Pine Plantations Continue to Spread
News of the Future 09/05/2008 12:54
May 9, 2040 - In the southern US states pine plantations now cover an area of 52 million acres. This increase of 67% in the last 45 years is mainly because of the demand of paper products. Pine plantations now account for almost half of southern timber volume growth.
During this same period of 45 years, all 13 southern states have lost acreage of natural forest, a total of 25 million acres, due to the increase of pine plantation expansion and loss of forest to residential and urban uses. Florida has had the greatest loss with almost 58%, South Carolina with 35% and North Carolina with 30%. More than 270 million acres of forest have been harvested in the southern states since 1995.
The most pine plantations are found in Georgia with a total of 9.3 million acres, with Alabama as second with 7.5 million acres.
Argument: The information is from the study The Southern Timber Market to 2040 published by USDA Forest Service Southern Research Station.
Hip Fractures Have Increased in the US
News of the Future 02/05/2008 12:51
May 2, 2040 - The number of hip fractures has nearly doubled in the US over the last 40 years. This year hip fractures will result in approximately 600,000 hospital admissions. More than 90 percent of hip fractures are associated with osteoporosis.
Of all fall-related fractures, hip fractures cause the greatest number of deaths and lead to the most severe health problems and reduced quality of life. 75 percent of the fractures occur in women, since they have more bone loss, have less dense bones to begin with and in general live longer than men do.
In preventing hip fractures it is important to keep your bones strong and healthy. You should also be active in improving your balance, which can be done by muscle-strengthening exercises, obtain as good vision correction as possible, and do daily balance exercises.
Argument: The World Health Organization predict that there will be 600,000 hip fractures in the US by year 2040.
Questions: Since a hip fracture severely reduces the quality of life, and one in four of the elderly who suffer a hip fracture are dead within one year of their operation, shouldn't there be more effort in informing, young women in particular, on how to prevent osteoporosis at an earlier age?
20% of the US Population Seniors
News of the Future 19/04/2008 14:12
April 19, 2035 - Of the total US population of 378 million, people over 65 years of age now make up 20% for the first time. The population has been aging rapidly with a senior ratio of only 4.1% by year 1900, and 12.4% 30 years ago.
The elderly dependency ratio (EDR), the number of people above 65 compared to those of what is considered working ages, between 15 and 64, is currently 33.7%. This is up from 18.5% since year 2005, which means that for every retired person there is now two workers, compared to four workers 30 years ago. The difference in the EDR puts a great strain on Medicare costs that will most likely reach 7.5% of GDP for this year.
The number of people above the age of 80 has grown to 23.8 million, making them 6.3% of the total population compared to 3.6% in 2005. In this age group women are quite over-represented with 61.5%, compared to 50.2% in people below the age of 80.
Argument: The numbers are based on the U.S. Interim Projections by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Questions: Since seniors are less spenders the interest rates will stay low which can grow to a problem where the state has an interest in increased consumption. In what ways will the seniors be stimulated to consume in the future?
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