Can Paralyzed Walk in the Future?
News of the Future 05/09/2008 09:06
September 5, 2035 - More than 20,000 quadriplegics around the world have now got a BCI, a Brain Computer Interface. It gives them the ability to control their environment, from driving their own electric wheelchairs outside their house, to make their own dinner.
The BCI consists of an internal sensor to detect brain cell activity and external processors that convert these brain signals into a computer-mediated output under the person's own control. The sensor is implanted on the surface of the area of the brain responsible for movement, the motor cortex, and is then wireless connected to a computer. The first successful implanted BMI was BrainGate for more than 30 years ago, which then gave the patient the ability to move a cursor on a screen and play a simple computer game.
BCI is mainly for people with severe motor impairments from spinal cord injury, ALS (Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis) or other motor neuron diseases
Steve Nelson from Hoboken, New Jersey has had his BCI for 3 years: "It definitely changed my life, after being completely stuck in my chair for several years after the accident. We have connected everything in my apartment to the software that I control with my mind. I can even go out of my apartment, take the elevator down and go for a tour downtown, without anyone assisting me. With the robotic hand at my chair I can open the freezer, take out the food I want, and cook it myself." However, how well this work of course differs from individual to individual and some criticism has been heard that the BCI is given to people who could not benefit from it for different reasons.
The developing of the BCI software and the experience from the increasing number of users now gives hope that legs and arms can be activated by thought only. Tests are currently made on people with BCI and if the result is positive a solution can be on the market in the near future.
Even though improvements have been made towards cloning of human organs scientists agree that there are still some years left for them to successfully help a person with spinal cord damage to walk again.
Argument: Tests with the BrainGate Neural Interface System have been successful, proving the possibility for a quadriplegic to move a cursor on a screen by thought only.
Questions: In what other ways can quadriplegics control their environment with their mind? When will it be possible to help a person with spinal cord damage to walk again?
Now You Can Have Your Own Therapist 24/7
News of the Future 01/09/2008 09:12
September 1, 2040 - From today you have your own therapist available 24 hours a day, always there if you need someone to talk to, always in a good mood, and remembers every word you have ever said. This is the first automated therapist, with the best knowledge known to mankind on treatment and rehabilitation. It has been debated for a long time, but with the blessing of major psychological associations, the developing of artificial intelligence, and automated speech (both to recognize to, and from), the government backed free automated therapist has opened her clinic. She has basically got all the knowledge there is about psychotherapy and the human mind, and can guide the patient through the same steps as a professional therapist. Everything the patient says gets calculated in a way to get the proper response, which she of course does as fast as any human.
The system is so advanced that in a blind test that involved 1,400 people no one could tell the difference between the automated therapist and a professional one after a 30 minute session. The therapist is not only prepared to handle basically all kind of questions, but can also tell if a person is lying in the way he talks, and can also ask the person to seek further help if necessary, and in what way.
To get in touch with your personal therapist, you just call the main number where she answers (you can choose if you want to talk to a woman or a man). Your therapist asks you how you are today and the session begins. Everything you say gets recorded so your therapist knows about you next time you call, and can then directly continue where you left off last time. All conversations are also anonymous recorded for the knowledge base of human behavior, for the therapist to develop.
Will this mean that traditional therapists should start looking for new jobs? Probably not. Humans do need humans, especially in times of need. Although the automated therapist has all the knowledge needed and the ability to adjust, she is not in three dimensions for real. In the future she might at least be in two dimensions since they are developing an animated version for a screen appearance.
Argument: Artificial intelligence will develop during year 2020-2030 and by then the computers are at the same level as the human brain. We can then communicate with automated people that understand what we say and can give a proper response. One way to use this could be for people who are in need of talking to someone, either as a friend or to guide in therapy.
Questions: Will it be possible to make a computer understand the human mind as a human does, or even better? What legal aspects would there be for a solution like the automated therapist? In what other way can artificial intelligence be used?
Taming Hurricane Pedro Gives Hope for the Future
News of the Future 29/08/2008 09:17
August 29, 2040 - Analysts believe that the effort in taming the hurricane Pedro is the main reason for it to still be considered a category four hurricane, before it reached the coast of southern Florida today. This is the first time ever a major hurricane has been affected in a measurable way by humans.
The hurricane fighting fleet of airplanes was alerted five days ago and has since then been spraying the ocean surface around Pedro's eye with a mix based on biodegradable oil to slow down the evaporating that feeds the hurricane. Even though progress have been made calculating the development of a hurricane, it is still difficult to determine the exact effect of the spraying, but analysts believe it is the reason that the wind speed has not increased.
It is hard to tell exactly what kind of damages a category five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale could do to the southern part of Florida. Estimations show that the difference between a category four and five hurricane could equal 10% of the damages, which if Pedro was in a bad mood, could be about US$ 17 billion. If these estimations are correct, the much debated investment in the hurricane fighting fleet was well worth it.
The taming of Pedro gives good hope for the future since the number of hurricanes has increased during the last 30 years, mainly because of the global warming. Hurricanes need a water temperature of at least 27 degrees Celsius which has become more common during this period.
Argument: According to Ross N. Hoffman, Vice President of Atmospheric and Environmental Research, it is possible to control hurricanes, by coating the ocean surface with a thin film of a biodegradable oil that slows evaporation. The estimated cost is based on the damage that the hurricane Andrew caused in Florida in 1992, in the value of year 2040.
Questions: Are there other ways to control hurricanes? How well will future computer power and software help us in calculating the weather in general and hurricanes in particular?
Hottest Summer Ever in Taiwan
News of the Future 25/08/2008 09:21
August 25, 2035 - This summer is considered as the hottest ever in Taiwan. The temperature will for the first time average over 35 degrees Celsius for more than 60 days during the summer. The heat is causing power shortages due to air conditioners in homes and factories.
Authorities report that a lot of elderly and homeless have died of heat stroke. Another concern is water shortages in several parts of the country to come later on as a result of the heat, and it can seriously affect agriculture where 70-75% of the water is used.
30 years ago the temperature only average over 35 degrees for 40 days, but due to the global warming it will continue to increase during this century.
Argument: According to Professor Liu Chung-ming of National Taiwan University's Global Change Research Center two-thirds of Taiwan's summer will average over 35 degrees Celsius by 2035, due to global warming.
Questions: How can people prepare to cope with heat waves in the future since they will be more common because of the global warming?
Is Tickle the Future of the Movie Industry?
News of the Future 24/08/2008 09:25
August 24, 2020 - The first full-length animated movie with realistic-looking humans, "Tickle" opens tonight. It is an intriguing thriller about a woman who gets framed by her husband, but the most intriguing is to see if you can spot the difference between real actors and these created by computers.
Computer animation has developed a lot since the first full-length movie "Toy Story" in 1995, and the first attempt of a full-length movie with humans "Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within" in 2001. The challenge and difficulties to create humans in animation lies mainly in the eye of the beholder, since we are so trained to see human behavior, movements, facial expressions etc.
Many people state that this is the future of the movie industry, since you don't have to pay actors US$ 25 million to appear in a movie, you can just license his face as a trademark if you like and let the computers do the rest. However, there is still some time left before this type of movies will save money for the studios; the budget for "Tickle" was about US$ 190 million.
They have also taken the opportunity it gives to re-create actors that are no longer active. A lot of effort was made to give a supporting role to the like of James Dean, a successful movie star that was tragically killed in a car accident 65 years ago. However, all resemblance between the tall homosexual clerk with the high-pitched voice saying "I'll be back" and the former action hero of the 1990s Arnold Schwarzenegger, is purely coincidental according to the director.
So, to the big question, can you see that the movie is only made by computers with no real actors? Well, go and see for yourself tonight!
Argument: Since the speed for processing information is constantly increasing and the cost decreasing, it will be possible to make more advanced animated movies. Software development is also a key to develop more realistic-looking humans. Movie studios that are not depending on established actors will be able to act more flexible.
Questions: If you can't tell the difference between an animated and real footage, is there a risk that news can be fabricated, like a president giving a speech with a different meaning than the original? Will people be interested in movies that look like it has real actors, but are only computer generated? How will quantum computing affect the rendering of animated movies when it becomes available later on?
First Hotel on the Moon Finally Opens
News of the Future 23/08/2008 09:31
August 23, 2025 - Today a new chapter in space tourism was written. Rod Markham and his wife-to-be Susan Millster arrived safely to the moon to spend 5 days as the first guests at the Starbright Hotel that was set up for this purpose two years ago.
Not are they only the first hotel guests on the moon, they also set a new record for expensive accommodation since the price was US$ 3,7 million per night, per person. However, the exclusive transfer from earth to the hotel was included in the price.
The hotel itself will probably have a tough time just to try to gain one star at any hotel rating system, since there is no room service, the guests have to do the cleaning of the room themselves and there is no bathroom in them. However, they have more stars than they need just outside their window.
Rod and Susan will get married through link by their local minister in San Diego, California at 9.00pm EST tonight, and the wedding will be broadcasted live by several major TV networks in a 1-hour special including the preparations for the trip.
They were accompanied by six other astronauts that during the stay will set up further accommodations for the guests that have made reservations at the Starbright Hotel next year. The hotel has so far no employees, only temporary staff when guests.
Argument: Apart from the few tourists that already have been out in space, commercial space flights will be available in 2008 through companies like Space Adventures and Virgin Galactic, even though they will just be out in space for a short time. Since several organizations plan to put the first man on Mars by 2030, new trips to the moon will take place around 2015-2020. That combined with the increasing interest in space tourism in the next decade will open up to the possibility to make a reservation on the moon.
Questions: How will the first permanent accommodations on the moon look like? Will we be able to follow space flights live on TV, like today's reality shows? What will a vacation on the moon be like, what would the exclusive attractions be apart from the view?
Transcript from Multi Voice Recognition to be used as Evidence
News of the Future 16/08/2008 09:35
August 16, 2020 - For the first time a court case is based on a multi voice recognition transcript as the main evidence. It was when Frank Levin took part in a dispute with four people that resulted in a fired gun that killed Adam Denny. The three other all testified that Frank had pulled the trigger, while Frank claims that according to the transcript, it clearly states that he was not the one holding the gun.
The challenge for Frank Levin's attorney in this case is to make a multi voice recognition transcript valid as proof of evidence in itself, since the conversation was not recorded. Frank had his voice recognition software in "text mode only" on his cell phone, so during the conversation no talk was saved; only a text file was created. The case is assumed to mainly be about the reliance in this technology which in the long run could benefit the development of voice recognition software.
Multi voice recognition has become widely popular for the last years, especially within the business world, since it allows all meetings to be recorded and transcripted simultaneously, with every quote related to the correct person. When the meeting is over, everyone gets a transcript of the meeting, easily searchable for the correct information. More and more people are also creating official "talklogs" where they record everything they say and publish it as diaries.
Argument: Voice recognition software has developed from demanding hours of the person to use it to create a profile for the software to recognize a voice and put it in text while speaking, to just a few minutes. In 2010 there will be software that can generate text without making a personal profile first. This opens up the possibility for multi voice recognition simultaneously to be used at meetings etc. to create a transcript while talking.
Questions: In what other ways can more advanced voice recognition be used? If voice recognition software will be used to record speech in a cell phone with an instant transcript, basically any conversation can be available in text. Will there be a practical need for that? Will "talklogs" become readable reality shows?
World Population Reaches Nine Billion
News of the Future 15/08/2008 09:37
August 15, 2050 - Earlier this morning a new-born girl outside of the city Djambala in the Republic of Congo was born, and became the symbolic nine billionth person in the world. The 23-year-old mother Makemba Ngollo said that she was very happy for the arrival of Titi, as the baby will be called.
Titi is purely a symbolic choice by the UN, since it is impossible to know where the exact nine billionth person is born, since several children are born every second around the world. The choice of a baby from the Republic of Congo coincides with their national holiday today as they celebrate 90 years of independence.
Argument: According to United Nations' World Population Prospects 2004 Revision, the world's population will reach 9.1 billion by 2050, with India as the most populous nation, with a projected decline in fertility to slightly over 2 children per woman in 2050 (from 2.6 children in 2004). Even though the administrative system will be more efficient in the developing parts of the world by then, it will still be difficult to determine the exact number of people in the world.
Questions: What affects on the world will the increase of the world?s population with almost 50% until 2050 have, which of course will be unprecedented in human history in number of people? Are there necessary steps that have to be taken to make sure that we for instance produce enough food for such a huge population?
The World's Largest Cross-Country Skirace is Cancelled...Forever
News of the Future 08/08/2008 13:42
August 8, 2025 - Due to the global warming and higher temperatures for the last years, the arrangers of the world's largest annual cross-country skirace, Vasaloppet in Sweden, has decided not to continue. They have had problems for several years to make enough snow for the 89 kilometer race and it has been cancelled now and then, the first time already in 1990.
The skirace started in 1922 and the arranger say that they are pleased that they have been able to keep the tradition alive for more than a century. More than 600,000 people have during the years been skiing from Sälen to Mora, the same route that the Swedish king-to-be, Gustav Vasa made in 1521 on his way escaping from Danish soldiers to Norway (although he went the other way, from Mora to Sälen).
Argument: According to Swedish meteorologist Pär Holmgren, the global warming will increase the temperature so it will be impossible to continue with Vasaloppet. The race was cancelled in 1990, and in 2005 the cost for providing the track with enough snow was US$ 1.6 million, or a loss of about US$ 40 per participant. It will not be possible to maintain the contest as it is today, so if there are no revolutionary inventions to provide that much snow, they will either have to quit, or move to a more northern location.
Questions: Apart from the general problem with global warming, will it affect any other similar events? When a city is chosen to host the Winter Olympics, will the availability of snow be an issue that narrows down the candidates? Will the demand for snow increase in the next 20 years due to all established events that will be affected?
370 Million People Worldwide Suffer from Diabetes
News of the Future 01/08/2008 13:39
August 1, 2030 - New statistics suggest that more than 370 million people worldwide today suffer from diabetes. The numbers have doubled over the last 30 years. Much of this increase has taken place in developed countries, due to ageing, obesity, unhealthy diets, population growth and sedentary lifestyles.
The direct costs for treating diabetes will only for the US this year be about US$ 506 billion. Although the number of people dying directly from diabetes is approximately 1.5 million worldwide, the number of deaths every year attributable to complications of diabetes is more than 8 million.
Even though improvements have been made in the work for finding a permanent cure for diabetes, the best cure for type-2 diabetes (which results from the body's inability to respond properly to the action of insulin produced by the pancreas) which accounts for about 90% of the cases, is still to exercise and keep a healthy diet. A 30 minute walk each day reduces the incidence of diabetes.
Argument: WHO estimates that 370 million people worldwide will suffer from diabetes in 2030, compared to 177 million in 2000. The figure US$ 506 billion in direct costs for the US to treat diabetes is based on today's cost, the estimated inflation and increase in patients to treat. No eventual cure for diabetes until 2030 is considered. Today the most permanent method of treating diabetes is a pancreas transplant which gives the patient a chance to become independent of insulin injections.
Questions: The most promising cure for diabetes is based on stem cell research. How much of the estimated cost for diabetes in 2030 would be worth investing today to get closer to a cure and what would be the return on that investment? Since physical activity reduces the incidence of diabetes, how much is worth investing in people being more active, already from a young age and to keep them active on a regular basis?
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