16 Million New Cancer Cases Worldwide
News of the Future 15/11/2008 09:29
November 15, 2020 - The number of new cases of cancer this year will exceed 16 million worldwide for the first time. This is an increase with 60% compared to 20 years ago and is due to the growing and aging population, and adoption of unhealthy lifestyles.
Tobacco is still the biggest single source for developing malignant tumors and lung cancer the most common form of cancer. The relative risk for a regular smoker to develop lung cancer compared to a non-smoker is between 20 and 30 times higher. Even involuntary tobacco smoke may increase the lung cancer risk by 20 percent.
The connection between smoking and lung cancer was already established in a report in 1957. They then estimated that the mortality rate caused by lung cancer had doubled from 1945 to 1955. Today, more than 10 million people worldwide dies from smoking every year.
The best way to avoid getting cancer is staying away from cancer-causing agents like tobacco and industrial carcinogens. It is also important to stay healthy with physical activity, and in general avoid fat food, refined carbohydrates and animal protein. Since there is still no cure for cancer, the best way to deal with cancer is early detection. In that way patients can start treatment as soon as possible which gives a lower mortality rate.
Argument: WHO has revised their World Cancer Report to 16 million new cases of cancer in the world by year 2020.
Questions: Since the cost for treating cancer in the US only, is more than US$ 170 billion a year and tobacco is the single biggest source, how much would it be worth in preventing young people from starting to smoke to save money in the future? Should governments go in to the market and offer a substitute for tobacco to drive the tobacco companies of the market with a substance that is less risky and expensive for the citizens?
Seafood Consumption to New Heights in the US
News of the Future 07/11/2008 09:26
November 7, 2025 - Last year the Americans consumed more than 6.6 billion pounds (3.0 million metric tons) edible weight of seafood for the first time. This is 18.9 pounds per person, which is a new record up 1.6% from the year before, compared to 16.6 pounds per person 20 years ago.
The main reason for the increase is that seafood in general has become cheaper over the years, due to the fact that more than 50% of the supply now is farm-raised. The development of new techniques in aquaculture has made production more flexible and less expensive. The most popular seafood last year was still shrimp, salmon, tilapia, and catfish.
Argument: The information is a revision of Seafood Vision 2020 by H.M. Johnson & Associates, based on the US consumption of seafood in year 2004 published by NOAA Fisheries Service.
Questions: How will the increase of seafood consumption in the US affect the beef and chicken industry? Will the development in aquaculture give new possibilities in other marine areas?
South Korea has the Highest Proportion of Senior Citizens
News of the Future 01/11/2008 09:21
November 1, 2050 - With 37.3% senior citizens of the total population, South Korea has the highest proportion in the world today. South Korea has thereby passed Japan where 36.5% are over the age of 65.
Japan has currently though the highest life expectancy rate at birth for any population ever, with 88.3 years compared to 84.4 years for the population of South Korea.
The ratio of senior citizens compared to the economically active population (age 15-64) in South Korea has increased to 69.4% compared to only 37.3% 20 years ago. However, elderly people generally work longer before they retire. Even though people live longer than ever before in South Korea, the total population continues to decrease due to the low fertility rate and is now 44.6 million.
Argument: According to the Ministry of Health and Welfare in South Korea, and the United Nations, South Korea will have the highest proportion of senior citizens in the world by year 2050.
Questions: How will the society change when the proportion of aging people will increase? What kind of products and services will they be interested in? Sine they in general will be healthier than today, will there be new activities for them?
Deaths from HIV in the US Continue to Decline
News of the Future 24/10/2008 10:17
October 24, 2030 - For the first time in 45 years the number of deaths from HIV in the US will be below 5,500 this year. Since the peak in 1995 when almost 55,000 people gave in for the disease, casualties have declined.
The reason for the declining mortality from human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is due to more knowledge among the general population of how to be protected against the disease, and the availability of more effective highly active anti-retroviral therapy (HAART). The last decades have seen progress in the developing of medicines to treat AIDS however there is no definite cure in sight.
Even though these numbers for the US are satisfying, AIDS has globally been outstanding in causing more deaths than any other epidemic, now counting more than 180 million people worldwide since it was recognized in year 1981. The projected life expectancy rate at birth are now five years lower in the whole of Africa, and the population is 280 million lower, than it would have been without the occurrence of AIDS.
Argument: According to the study Comparing The Public Health Burden of Chronic Hepatitis C and HIV Infection in United States, deaths from HIV in the US will be 4,200-6,700 in year 2030. The numbers of deaths worldwide from AIDS have been published by the United Nations in the report The Impact of AIDS.
Questions: The human population will be 3.5% lower in year 2030 than it would have been without the occurrence of AIDS and even if a cure is found, more than 40 million people will die before the epidemic is extinct. What is the loss of value for humanity to loose such a big part of the population? Can that value be invested today to prevent the disease to spread further?
Senior Drivers Account for 25% of US Driver Fatalities
News of the Future 19/10/2008 10:13
October 19, 2030 - Drivers aged 65 and older account for 25% of the total driver fatalities in the US, a figure that has doubled over the last 30 years. The reason for the increase is mainly the aging population.
Older drivers are though less represented in police reported car crashes, 16% of total, but due to age related physiological changes, they are more likely to die from their injuries.
Of all fatal traffic accidents, almost half of them are due to misjudgment, and one-third are related to psychological factors, mainly lack of sleep and inattention. The total number of fatal accidents however, continues to decrease in relation to vehicle-miles of travel, because of the latest inventions within the safety area.
Different solutions have been discussed in making driving more safe for older people, but something you can do yourself if you are in that age group is to take a refresher driving course, get regular check-ups for hearing, vision and general health, and stay strong and healthy through activity and exercise.
Argument: According to the report Older driver involvements in police reported crashes and fatal crashes: trends and projections drivers aged 65 and older will account for 25% of the total driver fatalities in the US by year 2030.
Questions: Since frailty of older people, where drivers aged 70-74 are twice as likely to die when involved in a crash compared to drivers aged 30-59 (for drivers aged 80 and older the risk is five times as high), their need when an accident occur differs from younger people. Will there be special senior safety packages available, for instance including wider seat belts?
US Medicare Costs Now 7.5% of GDP
News of the Future 04/10/2008 10:06
October 4, 2035 - The US administration announced today that Medicare costs for this year will be 7.5% of GDP. This is the highest number ever and almost three times as much as 30 years ago. The reason for the increase is of course the aging population.
Five years ago, the youngest people born during the baby boom (a period of time with exceptional birth rates, from 1946, after the end of the Second World War, to 1965) reached age 65 and became eligible for Medicare. This year, Medicare provides coverage for 83 million people who are 65 and older or disabled.
The Medicare costs will continue to increase in the future, with another 10 million eligible by year 2055, with a total of 9.8% of GDP.
Argument: According to United States Department of Health and Human Services the costs for Medicare will be 7.5% of GDP by year 2035.
Questions: In 2077 there will only be two workers on every Medicare beneficiary, compared to four workers today, which will put a unprecedented pressure on the working generation. What kind of system is needed to take care of this problem?
First Marathon Under Two Hours
News of the Future 30/09/2008 10:03
September 30, 2030 - Yesterday the 20-year-old Ethiopian wonderchild Demeke Retta took his first victory in the Berlin Marathon and became the first man under two hours ever! The new record is one hour 59 minutes 47 seconds.
This was Demeke's third victory in a major marathon of only five starts and he was of course very happy: "I knew I had the race with two kilometers left, but I wasn't sure to break the record, it's incredible!" The temperature was ideal, increasing from ten degrees Celsius at the start to 17 at the finish.
Demeke was helped by the tough pace set by South African Peter Radebe, who opened the first half in 60:12 minutes, but finished second on personal best 2:00:32. "I wasn't that worried since I felt very strong today and had decided to do my own race from the start", said Demeke and commended Peter for a great race.
Both Peter and Demeke beat the previous record set in Rotterdam Marathon three years ago of 2:00:54. The Marathon world record has progressed from the Australian Derek Clayton to be the first under 2:10 in 1969, and Paul Tergat from Kenya to go under 2:05 in 2003, to now be under two hours.
Argument: According to the study Mathematical analysis of running performance and world running records by Francois Peronnet and Guy Thibault, the Marathon world record will be under two hours in year 2030.
Questions: Humans can't improve world records indefinitely, and according to Peronnet and Thibault it is physical impossible for a man to run a marathon faster than 1:48:25. What will happen to world record sports when we get close to the ultimate limit?
Euro Banknotes Invalid by Friday
News of the Future 26/09/2008 10:01
September 26, 2040 - Hurry up if you still have euro banknotes lying around in your drawers, Friday is the last day for you to cash them in. Officials said yesterday that they are very pleased with the transition in removing the banknotes and coins from the market.
Due to the lack of demand for cash and the development of smartcards, the decision was taken five years ago to remove all euro banknotes and coins from the market. The major information campaigns and exposure in the media has given a great result, collecting more than 99,96% of the cash in circulation.
The euro was established as a unit of exchange in 1999 by 12 European Union member states and entered circulation in 2002. After only 38 years on the market you will in the future only be able to see them in a museum.
Argument: Bank of England cut the number of banknotes issued by 25 per cent between year 2001 and 2005. Due to the increase of e-commerce and the development of smartcards, the need for cash will continue to decrease, and finally be removed in year 2040.
Questions: What complications might occur if you remove banknotes and coins from a market? What necessary steps have to be taken to make it possible to take them out of circulation?
First Tourist Heading for Mars
News of the Future 21/09/2008 09:57
September 21, 2050 - At a press conference today it was announced that the first tourist heading for Mars will be the 38-year-old US businessman Patrick Clifford. He will leave the earth in the launching window of June 2052 and set his foot on the surface of Mars in November, together with the other 6 astronauts assigned for the mission to further explore the planet.
Patrick has now two years of training ahead of him to get ready for the trip. Not only will he spend five months in getting to Mars, but another 600 days there before he can go back home. Patrick was of course very excited: "This has been my dream since I was four, and seeing the first man on Mars 20 years ago made me realize that it was possible."
To be able to pay the US$ 1.3 billion for his ticket for the trip Patrick sold his majority stake in the business empire his father had built. "I know that my father would have been proud of me if he had still been alive today, he knew what this means to me", says Patrick. There is no risk though that you will find Patrick begging in your street corner when he comes back, rumors says that he was paid twice as much for his part of the company.
So, how is he going to spend his 600 days on the red planet? "Well, since I don't have a job when I get back after selling the company, I have plenty of time to come up with a new business idea", he says and laughs. If he brings a shovel he can start building the first hotel there, but maybe he shouldn't expect too many guests until someone can offer a lower transfer fare.
Argument: Several organizations plan to put the first man on Mars by year 2030 and the developing of space tourism during the next decades will give the possibility of bringing "tourists" to Mars. According to Nasa the most likely way to go will be a "Long-Stay Mission (fast transit)" with 4-6 months to get there and a 600 days stay before returning.
Questions: What possibilities will occur due to the exploration of Mars this century? Will Mars become a tourist destination in the future although you have to stay for 600 days before you can return to earth?
Beam Yourself Around the World with Telebeamer
News of the Future 12/09/2008 09:54
September 12, 2035 - Are you kidding? Is it possible to beam myself? No, of course not, but you can now make a 3-D projection of yourself anywhere in the world. The first product for real teleimmersion has been released, the Telebeamer.It consists of four 2-meter pillars, to set up so they form a square of about 4 square meters. Anything within the box (preferably you) is scanned in three dimensions, and can easily be projected in another box with the same setup. The great thing is that you can have someone else projected in the same box where you are, at the same time as you are projected in that person's box. In that way you can truly communicate with each other from different parts of the world.
In the pillars there are 3-D scanners as well as 3-D projectors. They are wireless connected to your computer where you have specific software that connects with the person that you would like, that have the same software and 3-D box as you. With the microphone and speakers that goes with the installation you can easily talk to the other person when he or she is projected in front of you.
In the future the manufacturer intends to provide a three-party connection, so people from three Telebeamers can meet. They are also developing game versions where you for instance can play table tennis together with a projected ping-pong ball. Even though an installation is a bit bulky they hope that a shuttle can bring a Telebeamer to Starbright Hotel on the moon, so the guests there can get a visit from home.
Even if it sounds cool, don't expect that this will be the Christmas present of the year. First you need two of them to have someone to communicate with, and secondly, they cost US$ 12,900 each, so they are mainly for businesses.
Argument: Even though videophone has not been interesting enough for the mass market so far, there is a great interest in interacting in people elsewhere. The developing in 3-D scanning and 3-D projection makes the Telebeamer possible, and by year 2035 Internet will be so fast that it can handle a well projected, well updated, 3-D experience.
Questions: Will a product like the Telebeamer be interesting for the home market? Will there be other ways to interact with each other from distant locations in the future?